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Demographic dividend (1)
Demographic dividend (1)
Demographicdividend
Demographicdividendreferstoaperiod–usually20to30years–whenfertilityratesfallduetosignificantreductionsinchildandinfantmortalityrates.Aswomenandfamiliesrealizethatfewerchildrenwilldieduringin-fancyorchildhood,theywillbegintohavefewerchildrentoreachtheirdesirednumberofoffspring,furtherreduc-ingtheproportionofnon-productivedependents.Thisfallisoftenaccompaniedbyanextensioninaveragelifeexpectancythatincreasestheportionofthepopulationthatisintheworkingage-group.Thiscutsspendingondependentsandspurseconomicgrowth.
families,risingincome,andrisinglifeexpectancyrates.[5]However,dramaticsocialchangescanalsooccurduringthistime,suchasincreasingdivorcerates,postponementofmarriage,andsingle-personhouseholds.[6]
1StatisticalOverview
Approximately1.8billionpeoplebetween10and24yearsoldthehighesttotalnum-berofyoungpeoplethaneverbefore.[7]AccordingtotheUNPopulationFund(UNFPA),thisnumberisex-pectedtoincreaseuntil2070.[8]Muchoftheincreasehasderivedfromtheleastdevelopedcountrieswhohaveexperiencedrapidandlargegrowthintheiryouthpop-ulations.Withinleastdevelopedcountries’populationsroughly60%areunder24yearsold.[9]Thelargepropor-tionofyoungpeopleinleastdevelopedcountriescreatesanopportunitytorealizeademographicdividend.How-ever,thisrealizationcomeswithchallenges.
Demographicdividend,asdefinedbytheUnitedNationsPopulationFund(UNFPA)means,“theeconomicgrowthpotentialthatcanresultfromshiftsinapopulation’sagestructure,mainlywhentheshareoftheworking-agepop-ulation(15to64)islargerthanthenon-working-ageshareofthepopulation(14andyounger,and65andolder).”[1]Inotherwordsitis“aboostineconomicpro-ductivitythatoccurswhentherearegrowingnumbersofpeopleintheworkforcerelativetothenumberofdepen-dents.”[2]UNFPAstatedthat,“Acountrywithbothin-UNFPAstatedthat,[10]
creasingnumbersofyoungpeopleanddecliningfertility
“Bythemiddleofthiscentury,thepopulationoftheleasthasthepotentialtoreapademographicdividend.”[3]
developedcountrieswillhavedoubledinsize,adding14
Duetothedividendbetweenyoungandold,manyargue
millionyoungpeopletotheworking-agepopulationeach
thatthereisagreatpotentialforeconomicgains.Inor-year.Creatingconditionsfordecentlivelihoodswillbean
derforeconomicgrowthtooccurtheyoungerpopulation
enormoustask,especiallygiventhat,currently,about80
musthaveaccesstoqualityeducation,adequatenutrition
percentofthepeoplewhoworkinthesecountriesareun-andhealthincludingaccesstosexualandreproductive
employed,underemployedorirregularlyemployed.Ad-health.
ditionally,theshortageoffinancialresourceswillmake
However,thisdropinfertilityratesisnotimmediate.Theitdifficulttomaintain,letaloneincrease,spendingonlagbetweenproducesagenerationalpopulationbulgethathealth,educationandnutrition.”surgesthroughsociety.Foraperiodoftimethis“bulge”
Therefore,inordertoreapthebenefitsofademographic
isaburdenonsocietyandincreasesthedependencyratio.
dividend,countriesmustrecognizeandcultivatethepo-Eventuallythisgroupbeginstoentertheproductivela-tentialofyoungpeopleandclosethegapbetweenthe
borforce.Withfertilityratescontinuingtofallandolder
demandsplacedonyoungpeopleandtheopportunities
generationshavingshorterlifeexpectancies,thedepen-providedtothem.[11]
dencyratiodeclinesdramatically.Thisdemographicshiftinitiatesthedemographicdividend.Withfeweryoungerdependents,duetodecliningfertilityandchildmortality
rates,andfewerolderdependents,duetotheoldergen-2Exampleserationshavingshorterlifeexpectancies,andthelargest
segmentofthepopulationofproductiveworkingage,2.1EastAsiathedependencyratiodeclinesdramaticallyleadingtothe
<binedwitheffectivepublicEastAsiaprovidessomeofthemostcompellingevidencepoliciesthistimeperiodofthedemographicdividendcantodateofthedemographicdividend.ThedemographichelpfacilitatemorerapideconomicgrowthandputslesstransitioninEastAsiaoccurredover5–15yearsduringstrainonfamilies.Thisisalsoatimeperiodwhenmanythe1950sand1960s,ashortertimeperiodthanany-womenenterthelaborforceforthefirsttime.[4]Inmanywherepreviously.Duringthistime,EastAsiancoun-countriesthistimeperiodhasledtoincreasinglysmallertriesinvestedintheiryouthandexpandedaccesstofamily
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Award [1+1 marks] for each valid economic effect, provided that it is developed by means of explanation or detail. E.g. the demographic dividend – ...龙源期刊网 .cn Second Demographic Dividend Expected 作者: 来源:《中国经贸聚焦· 英文版》2012 年第 11 期 When economists are busy ...关键词:人1:3年龄结构,人力资本,人口红利,经济增长,地区差异I HumanCapital,DemographicDividendandEconomicGrowth Major:ProbabilityandMathematicalStatisticsName:ZhongChao...1 人口红利 Demographic dividend 基尼系数 Gini coefficient 行政审批 administrative approval 司法改革 judicial reform 和平发展 peaceful development 文化逆差 cultural...1, And unbalanced economic development speed, national economy with an ...China&#39;s cheap labor era is over, the original of the demographic dividend...1. Demographic dividend will be converted into the talent bonus. ? 2. the continued large-scale urbanization and new rural construction ? 3. Domestic ...人口红利 理论辨析 现实困境与理性选择-经济学动态2012.1_经济/市场_经管营销_...Bloom,Canning&Sevilla(2002),The Demographic Dividend,Population Matters ...because demographic dividend is disappear gradually, we have to turn our labor...In Britain:1. Historically, churches set up many schools. 2. Until very ...2.3.1. Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth After World War II, from , the rapid economic growth of East Asian countries caused a ...13.46% 21. What is a lower bound for the price of a 1-month European put option on a nondividend-paying stock when the stock price is $12, ...2012年度上海财经大学学术活动计划表-1学术报告_其它考试_资格考试/认证_教育专区...(1965) model---The role of demographic dividend Self-employment and Health...老龄化; 人口压力; 可持续发展; Outline Abstract (Chinese & English) 1 . ...The demographic dividend is vanishing, while the dependency ratio of children...OPINION: Invest in Young People to Harness Africa’s Demographic Dividend | Inter Press Service
News and Views from the Global South & & & & & & & & &Julitta Onabanjo is Regional Director, UNFPA East and Southern Africa. Benoit Kalasa is Regional Director, UNFPA West and Central Africa. Mohamed Abdel-Ahad is Regional Director, UNFPA North Africa and Arab States.JOHANNESBURG, Sep 21 2014 (IPS) - Different issues will be competing for the attention of different African leaders attending the 69th United Nations General Assembly Special Session on International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Beyond 2014 in New York on Sep 22.But the central question for Africa’s development today is this: How do we harness the dividend from the continent’s current youthful population?Solving this issue has never been more fundamental to Africa’s development than it is today.For decades many, African countries have come up with a variety of ‘development’ plans. But often missing in these documents is how best to harness the potential of the youthful population for the transformation of the continent.Therefore, strategic investment to harness the potential of the youth population can no longer wait.“African governments must know that efforts to create a demographic dividend are likely to fail as long as vast portions of young females are denied their rights, including their right to education, health and civil participation, and their reproductive rights”The groundswell for changeAfrica is undergoing important demographic changes, which provide immense economic opportunities. Currently, there are 251 million adolescents aged 10-19 years in Africa compared with 1.2 billion worldwide, which means that around one in five adolescents in the world comes from Africa.Africa’s working age population is growing and increasing the continent’s productive potential. If mortality continues to decline and fertility declines rapidly, the current high child dependency burden will reduce drastically. The result of such change is an opportunity for the active and employed youth to invest more.
With declining death rates, the working age population in Africa will increase from about 54 percent of the population in 2010 to a peak of about 64 percent in 2090.This increase in the working age population will also create a window of opportunity
that, if properly harnessed, should translate into higher economic growth for Africa, yielding what is now termed a ‘demographic dividend’ – or accelerated economic growth spurred by a change in the age structure of the population.Reaping the demographic dividend requires investments in job creation, health including sexual and reproductive health and family planning, education and skill and development, which would lead to increasing per capita income.Due to low dependency ratio, individuals and families will be able to make savings, which translate into investment and boost economic growth. This is how East Asian countries (Asian Tigers) were able to capitalise on their demographic window during the period 1965 and 1990.The impact of such a demographic transition on economic growth is no longer questionable – it is simply a fact.But this transformation requires that appropriate policies, strategies, programs and projects are in place to ensure that a demographic dividend can be reaped from the youth bulge.Seizing the momentWithout concerted action, many African countries could instead face a backlash from the growing numbers of disgruntled and unemployed youth that will emerge.In the worst-case scenario, such a demographic transition could translate into an army of unemployed youth and significantly increase social risks and tensions.To seize the opportunity, African states will need to focus their investments in a number of critical areas. A priority will be the education and training of their youth.African governments must know that efforts to create a demographic dividend are likely to fail as long as vast portions of young females are denied their rights, including their right to education, health and civil participation, and their reproductive rights.If these efforts are to succeed, this will demand addressing gender disparities between today’s boys and girls especially, but more specifically, addressing the vulnerabilities of the adolescent girl.Beyond rhetoric As we move toward the post-2015 development agenda, unleashing the potential and power of Africa’s youth should be a critical component of the continent’s developmental strategies, as reflected in the
– the regional outcome of ICPD beyond 2014 – and the Common African Position on the post-2015 development agenda.This can no longer be reduced to election or political polemics. It requires urgent action.Young people are central to the realisation of the demographic dividend. It is therefore important to protect and fulfil the rights of adolescents and youth to accurate information, comprehensive sexuality education, and health services for sexual and reproductive well-being and lifelong health, to ensure a productive and competitive labour force.Africa cannot afford to squander the potential gains of the 21st Century offered by such an important demographic asset:
its youthful population.Edited by Ronald Joshua &
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Demographic dividend: 人口红利
Demographic dividend就是“人口红利”，指在一个时期内生育率(fertility rate)迅速下降，少儿与老年抚养负担均相对较轻，总人口中劳动适龄人口(labor force)比重上升，从而在老年人口比例达到较高水平之前，形成一个劳动力资源相对比较丰富，对经济发展十分有利的黄金时期。
目前，我国正面临aging of population（人口老龄化），人口红利正在消失，将面临剩余劳动力短缺（labor shortage）的重大转折。蔡昉表示，我们急需把经济增长转到提高劳动参与率（labor participation rate，经济活动人口，包括就业者和失业者，占劳动年龄人口的比率）和劳动生产率(production rate)上来。
China's demographic dividend has been disappearing since 2012, which will have significant impact on economic growth.
中国人口红利消失的拐点已在2012年出现，将对经济增长产生显著影响。
(Source: .cn)
BEIJING, Jan. 28 (Xinhua) -- China's demographic dividend has been disappearing since 2012, which will have significant impact on economic growth, the People's Daily quoted an expert as saying in a Monday report.
"We should be psychologically and politically prepared for the situation," said Professor Cai Fang, a demographer and director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in an interview with the People's Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party of China (CPC).}